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Never bet against Donald J. Trump

By : Ziad K Abdelnour| 21 November 2016
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As the author of the 2011 book “Economic Warfare: Secrets of Wealth Creation in the Age of Welfare Politics” I’ve always been willing to take the “other side” of the “consensus view.” That willingness – combined with a commitment to the long view – has worked out very well for me through the years.

Having also bet from Day One on Donald J. Trump winning the general elections and never wavering on that, I think I know a thing or two on where and how to make money in the next few years given my overall geopolitical insight and my access to the power structure.

In a recent tabulation in The New Yorker, it was determined that Presidents actually achieved about 73% of what they promised. Hence if we align our investing with President-elect Trump’s spending targets, we stand to clean up.

So where is the money to be made off the Trump Administration – if our newly elect President sticks to his diverse programs.

I will say up front that, on a sector basis, a Trump presidency will be very bullish for the most-regulated sectors of the economy.

1. Financials/Wall Street – Without a doubt since most of Trump’s proposals are very Wall Street-friendly. Cutting corporate and personal income taxes? Check. Spending $1 trillion on infrastructure? Check. Repatriating trillions of dollars more in corporate profits tucked away overseas? Check. Putting more Americans back to work? Check. Reforming Obamacare, which Wall Street sees as having hurt business? Check. Reducing burdensome regulations? Check. Rewriting the tax code? Check. Potentially repealing the 2010 Dodd-Frank law and the burdensome Volcker Rule embedded in it? Check, check and triple-check.

2. Health Care – By repealing Obamacare and instead allowing people who buy their own coverage to deduct premium costs from their taxes; by giving states a fixed amount of money to cover low-income Americans under Medicaid, instead of paying for a share of each enrollee’s cost; and by allowing health insurers to sell coverage across state lines, President Trump’s actions will clearly increase competition and reduce costs. Hence, a huge benefit to the health care industry at large.

3. Energy – Especially in the midstream oil and gas business. Midstream businesses are those that move oil and gas from the site of production to processing plants, storage facilities, and end customers. Midstream consists largely of the oil and gas pipelines that crisscross underneath North America. With Trump in power, there will be no more support at the highest levels of government for those blocking infrastructure projects. The path we had been heading down with respect to the obstruction of new pipelines just abruptly ended today. Bottom Line: I think the midstream sector will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of his election, as projects that were on the fence may suddenly look a lot more attractive. Especially considering that many new midstream projects may also be pursued over the next four years.

Other sectors I believe are going to be hot under a Trump presidency are sectors such as:

1. Infrastructure – As the Trump Administration will be spending $1 trillion to rebuild U.S. infrastructure. That’s $100 billion a year for ten years to repair America’s aging roads, bridges, and airports. That’s more than Obama’s Economic Stimulus Plan, which spent $261 billion in four years on shovel-ready projects.

2. Defense – Here again, Trump said he would boost defense spending by as much as 15%. He won’t be able to ramp up the Pentagon’s budget that much, but defense and security will clearly be a focus.

3. Smart Technologies – Especially those able to monetize their own ‘publication’ to the nth degree over everyone else while becoming advertising platforms too. If for example Facebook leverages even 20% of what it’s doing now, the sky’s the limit for this company and for its stock. Same for companies diving deep into drones, virtual reality, and artificial intelligence (AI).

In general, I see huge potential for a rapprochement with Russia’s Putin and China’s Xi Jinping and making the most off the three countries new relationship hence a very different way of conducting business between those parties and the rest of the world.

Trump is smart enough to realize that – at least at this stage – the US is not the “Sun” anymore but one of the major planets in the Universe along with Russia and China and will seek to maximize that relationship to the benefit of all…. Definitely a move in the right direction for all parties concerned.

Overall, I believe business and by the same time politics will never be the same starting January 2017 … but by the same token, business will be more politicized than ever.

If you are already aware of this, you will be an even bigger beneficiary of the new world order in the making. If you are not, welcome to the new world. Time to get out of your little cocoon and wake up for good.

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